Disenfranchising Democrats

The hope held by Hillary Clinton and her supporters -- that Florida and Michigan would hold new primaries that could give her a much-needed boost in popular votes and pledged delegates -- is slipping away. It's no mystery why: The Obama campaign is running down the clock.

Even as the media watched Barack Obama take on the Jeremiah Wright controversy this week, the Obama campaign appears to have quietly nixed legislation in Michigan that would have held a new primary on June 3. In Florida too, the state Democratic Party appears to have given up on a revote.

Obama supporters are satisfied at the collapse of what they see as an end-run around party rules. Such satisfaction is misguided. The failure to hold revotes is a blow to the Democratic Party that will disenfranchise voters and could cost Democrats the presidency.

Neither Mrs. Clinton nor Mr. Obama can yet claim clear title to the Democratic Party's nomination. Mr. Obama has more pledged delegates, thanks to strong showings in caucuses across the country, but Mrs. Clinton has won primaries in crucial big swing states. When a race is this close, the legitimacy of the process matters. Unfortunately, neither campaign has developed a fair road map for what remains of the nomination fight.

In Florida, the Clinton campaign's insistence that the credentials committee seat all of her delegates is unrealistic. Polls suggest that a Clinton-Obama face-off would be a much closer affair now than it would have been in January. But the Obama campaign's counteroffer -- that the two split Florida's delegates evenly -- is worse. Blatantly undemocratic, it would strip the states' primaries of meaning and is unbecoming of a campaign that says it's dedicated to bringing new voters into the political system.

Anyone who has experienced the passions stirred up by a hard-fought political campaign understands the Obama camp's decision to play it tough. Yet by disenfranchising two essential swing states (including one whose governor, Charlie Crist, may be John McCain's running mate) they are doing so in a way that is tragically shortsighted. According to a Miami Herald poll earlier this week, 24% of Florida Democrats say they are less likely to support the ultimate Democratic candidate if their votes in the primary don't count. A record-breaking 1.7 million Democrats voted in January, which means the party could lose as many as 408,000 votes in November. The latest Reuters/Zogby poll shows Mr. McCain slightly ahead of both Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama. The Democratic Party can't afford to risk losing these voters if it hopes to carry Florida.

Fortunately, there is time to work out a solution. Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean should strike a grand bargain that resolves the dispute over Florida and Michigan and sets ground rules for the rest of the campaign. The bargain should start with the DNC pressing for revotes in both states. Polls suggest new primaries would be competitive contests, and therefore fair to both candidates. As a concession to the Obama campaign, Mr. Dean should promise something Mr. Obama desperately wants, support in rallying superdelegates to the party's frontrunner. If, at the end of the contest, Mr. Obama has won more states, enjoys a larger share of popular vote, and maintains a triple-digit lead in pledged delegates, and went along with revotes in Florida and Michigan, Mr. Dean should promise to personally pressure superdelegates to respect the will of Democratic voters and support the party's frontrunner.

In return, Mr. Obama will have to stop acting as if Mrs. Clinton's efforts to compete are illegitimate. This contest isn't over. Both candidates need superdelegate support to clinch the nomination. With 12 primary or caucus contests remaining (including Michigan and Florida), it's reasonable for superdelegates to wait and see how the process plays out. If Mrs. Clinton puts together a string of victories that reduces Mr. Obama's delegate lead to double-digits or gives her a large lead in the popular vote, then Obama supporters should recognize that superdelegates will award the nomination to the candidate they believe is best prepared to win in November.

Does Mr. Dean have the clout to impose rules like this on two strong-willed candidates? Of course he does. The convention's credentials committee is stacked with Dean loyalists. It's also the right and smart thing to do. By respecting the will of voters in Florida and Michigan -- and insisting that both campaigns respect the will of Democratic voters nationwide if there is a clear frontrunner come early June -- Mr. Dean would demonstrate his party's commitment honoring the will of the people. It may be a long shot, but a grand bargain of this sort is Democrats' best hope for avoiding a rift that could divide the party for years to come.

Mr. Schoen is the author of "Declaring Independence: the Beginning of the End of the Two Party System" (Random House, 2008).